Oz Weather Apponomics – Part 4

This post provides an update to the progress of Oz Weather in the Australian app store.

First, here are some of the most recent milestones, highlights and points of interest.

  • Total app downloads: 34,800
  • Net app revenue: AUD$52,500 (US$37,000)
  • Highest paid app ranking: #1 (for 12 consecutive days)
  • Lowest paid app ranking: #17 (excluding app store technical glitch)
  • Average paid app ranking: #6 (over app lifetime)
  • Upgrade uptake half-life: 5 days (average time for 50% of existing users to update to new versions)
  • Total weather queries served: 3.8 million
  • Split between iPhone / iPod Touch user base: 89% / 11%

And here is the complete history of daily sales to date (ie. from 1st November 2008 to end of first week of April 2009).

Oz Weather Sales

I have listed some probable causes for some of the ups and downs in my previous posts, but the newest “feature” here is what looks like a downward trend since the peaks of early February, although the last 20 days or so could be showing a leveling off – perhaps to some kind of base sales level around 100 to 150 sales per day. This is lower than the figure of 150 to 200 I had suggested in an earlier post, but the correlation between daily sales and weather queries per day seems to have become even clearer, as evidenced by the following updated graph.

Weather vs Sales

If you compare this graph with the earlier version from a month ago, you will see that the more recent, lower level of daily sales on the leftmost part of the graph correlate well with decreased level of app usage by existing customers – which was down to about 0.75 queries per day per app in some cases.

This suggests two possibilities to me

  • Long term users may be experiencing app fatigue, overload or dilution, and are no longer using older apps as much as they used to.
  • During this inter-seasonal period with less weather extremes, the weather is of less interest to people in general, and hence existing app owners use the app less, and new iPhone owners are less likely to want to buy a copy.

It is worth noting that sales of other Australian weather apps appear to have experienced broadly similar trends to those of Oz Weather, as evidenced by their rankings which have broadly followed the movements of Oz Weather’s own rankings. Therefore it seems that competitive factors are not a significant factor here.

Based on the evidence to hand, I suspect that the issue of less interesting weather is the most significant one. If this is indeed so, then sales can be expected to increase again when bouts of extreme winter weather start to hit Australia.

So that is my hypothesis, and I will report back later with further data which may support or refute it.


App Not Doing So Well? Here’s Some Solace.

I am assuming that most of the readers of this blog are iPhone app developers, but if you are not, can I perhaps just invite you to imagine for a few moments what it would be like if you were…? Great! Here we go.

As an app developer, have you ever found yourself saying anything along the following lines?

  • I’ve just dropped out ofย  the top 100 list.
  • I didn’t do so well today – my downloads were down 25% from the weekend.
  • My sales have decreased for 3 days in a row.
  • My review ratings have been dragged down by those pesky uninstall review prompts.

If so (and I suspect this would be especially so for many independent developers), then you may well be suffering from over-identification with your app or apps – because if you examine those statements, you will see that the “I” and “My” parts should really be “My app”, or even less personally “The app I have created”, or “The app called <insert_name_here>”.

Obviously, the simple fact of the matter is that we are not our apps. Rather, apps are abstract entities that we have created. And even then we have only been responsible for part of the act of creating them – especially bearing in mind the whole infrastructure that was built by Apple and others over the years which provided the basis from which apps such as these could emerge at all.

But a basic human emotional tendency is to mistakenly attach a significant portion of our self-worth to what we have created anyway, and then suffer a mental and emotional roller coaster as our creation rises or falls within the metrics that we apply for judging its success or failure in the marketplace.

Perhaps you are thinking “as an app developer, I’m not an especially emotional person”, but the truth of the matter becomes evident if you can stand back a little and examine your own use of language. You might be surprised to see what it reveals about what you identify yourself with! And along a similar line, do you exhibit any of the following behaviours?

  • Attempting to obtain the most recent app sales data only moments after it becomes available each day
  • Keeping detailed daily statistics of all aspects of your app sales, reviews, ratings and performance
  • Being moody or distracted whenever your app sales or reviews have been worse than the day before
  • Being jubilant or cocky whenever your app sales or reviews have been better than the day before

Again, although there may sometimes be sound business reasons for doing some of things, they are potentially also signs that you are over-anxious about your app’s performance, and hence somewhat a victim of the highly impersonal and generally uncontrollable characteristics of the app store ecosystem.

So what can you do to ease this over-attachment, lessen irrational anxiety, and generally find a greater sense of peace? Here are some tested and proven things to try:

  • Meditate – even taking just 10 to 20 minutes a day of quiet time during which you allow your mind to settle can have an effect which endures throughout the day.
  • Spend some time in nature – nature is generally peaceful and timeless, and inspires a similar feeling in those who spend time in it.
  • Exercise energetically – quite apart from taking your mind off work, this has major physiological and psychological benefits as well, including a greater sense of peace and well-being, and an enhanced ability both to focus and to think more holistically.

In addition to the above – you could also try using the “Solace and Courage” app as needed (iTunes link). I am giving away 10 free copies (promotional codes) to the first 10 people to email me at gpdawson on the gmail.com domain or follow me and then message me on twitter @gpdawson (so I can direct message you back with the code).

I’ll leave a note here when I run out – if you are reading this, you still have a good chance. Sorry! No longer available – but it still only costs US$0.99. ๐Ÿ™‚

But please note these promotional codes work only in the US iTunes store!

For those who don’t have US iTunes accounts, here is an extract from “Solace and Courage”, which it might be helpful to ponder, instead.

Greatness arises not from what you do externally, but from who you are internally.

When you get in touch with your inner core of stillness, whatever action ensues is imbued with the special qualities of that space.

You become more powerful, more creative, more compassionate.

Even your smallest acts become subtly more profound and meaningful, and their effects penetrate far beyond their immediate sphere of expression.

I must admit here that, somewhat ironically (or is it fittingly?!), the “Solace & Courage” app that I launched about 10 days ago seems to have peaked and is now declining in sales. After peaking at 33 sales in a day, and reaching 46th in Australia in the Lifestyle category and 61st in the US, it has since declined to about 10 sales per day and dropped out of the Australian and US rankings.

On the other hand, it is still currently ranked 44th in the UK (although this obviously is only on the basis of very few sales), and all three app reviews it has received from users other than myself gave it 5 stars. I suppose they may actually be people who know me, and wanted to help, but I don’t know this for sure and prefer to imagine they are from genuinely appreciative users.

So I will (and have already) been pondering the above text from “Solace & Courage”, and am glad to say that my self-esteem remains unperturbed. Although of course I hoped, I never expected this app to be a big seller. Of course giving away some copies may possibly lead to some extra sales if people like it and spread the word, but whether or not it does, it won’t be bothering me too much. ๐Ÿ™‚